I was sitting at my desk at work yesterday at about 1:45 pm when I got a phone call from the Stark County Emergency Services Office. It was an emergency message sent out to everyone in town advising us that the community emergency storm shelter was opening now instead of this evening, and people who might need shelter from severe storms should go there now. The shelter is at the Dickinson State University Student Union. There were other shelters in the varios small towns around us. Cumulus clouds were developing quickly to our west and southwest, and there was the possibility of severe storms with baseball size hail and 80 mph to hit in the next couple of hours.
Well, this was rather alarming to hear. The weather was hot and quite humid yesterday. It is unusual for us to have much humidity. The NWS had been predicting possible severe weather depending on factors like heat and humidity. It was most probable that our severe weather would arrive late evening, but they wanted vulnerable people to seek shelter before that just in case.
I decided to leave work and pick up a few things at the grocery store. The emergency message must have been effective since the lines at the strore reminded me of the panic shopping we see before a snow storm hits. I went home and sat and watched the sky. There was a lot more traffic than usual for a Thursday in the early afternoon. Neighbors and people I talked to said it looked and felt like we were really going to be in for some bad weather tonight.
By 3:30 there still was no storm, but the sky was filled with big grey clouds coming in from the south and southwest alternating with periods of sun.
By 4:30 the temperature was up a couple of degrees. The sun/dark cloud pattern conntinued, and all of eastern Montana was under a severe thunderstorm watch.
By 5:30 pm, skies were mainly clear, and by 5:45 they had partially clouded over and our chance for severe storms was increased to 70%. The Thunderstorm watch was still on for eastern Montana.
By 8:30 pm, skies were completely clear, except for a solid grey line of clouds in the far west. We were in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2:00 As I was exhausted from work and weather, I went to bed.
At 11:30, a very windy storm hit that lasted about 20 minutes, dropping .07 of rain and no hail. No sirens. No damage. All the storms moved east
How good are you at predicting the weather? How much faith do you have in the NWS? Any memorable times when they have been really right or really wrong?






