2025, Uncategorized, Weather

Stormy Weather

24 Comments

I was sitting at my desk at work yesterday at about 1:45 pm when I got a phone call from the Stark County Emergency Services Office. It was an emergency message sent out to everyone in town advising us that the community emergency storm shelter was opening now instead of this evening, and people who might need shelter from severe storms should go there now. The shelter is at the Dickinson State University Student Union. There were other shelters in the varios small towns around us. Cumulus clouds were developing quickly to our west and southwest, and there was the possibility of severe storms with baseball size hail and 80 mph to hit in the next couple of hours.

Well, this was rather alarming to hear. The weather was hot and quite humid yesterday. It is unusual for us to have much humidity. The NWS had been predicting possible severe weather depending on factors like heat and humidity. It was most probable that our severe weather would arrive late evening, but they wanted vulnerable people to seek shelter before that just in case.

I decided to leave work and pick up a few things at the grocery store. The emergency message must have been effective since the lines at the strore reminded me of the panic shopping we see before a snow storm hits. I went home and sat and watched the sky. There was a lot more traffic than usual for a Thursday in the early afternoon. Neighbors and people I talked to said it looked and felt like we were really going to be in for some bad weather tonight.

By 3:30 there still was no storm, but the sky was filled with big grey clouds coming in from the south and southwest alternating with periods of sun.

By 4:30 the temperature was up a couple of degrees. The sun/dark cloud pattern conntinued, and all of eastern Montana was under a severe thunderstorm watch.

By 5:30 pm, skies were mainly clear, and by 5:45 they had partially clouded over and our chance for severe storms was increased to 70%. The Thunderstorm watch was still on for eastern Montana.

By 8:30 pm, skies were completely clear, except for a solid grey line of clouds in the far west. We were in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2:00 As I was exhausted from work and weather, I went to bed.

At 11:30, a very windy storm hit that lasted about 20 minutes, dropping .07 of rain and no hail. No sirens. No damage. All the storms moved east

How good are you at predicting the weather? How much faith do you have in the NWS? Any memorable times when they have been really right or really wrong?

24 thoughts on “Stormy Weather”

  1. When the oak leaves turn over, it’s gonna rain. (No indiction of amount).
    My left knee, before I had it replaced, was a petty accurate prediction of, at least a weather change.

    We have a weather stick; it’s good at telling me what the weather currently is…

    As for predicting rain, I believe it when I see it.
    I took a meteorology class a few years ago. There’s a lot going on with the weather. The teacher left a lot to be desired. It was all online, which means I didn’t learn too much. Would have been better in person for me.

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    1. I’m wondering if I am now going to join the knees weather club. Blew out my knee last night and I’m currently in a big brace. X-rays say nothing broken but I have to have an MRI next week. So much fun!

      On a positive note, my neighbor up the street has lent me a big cool walking stick so now when I’m walking around, I feel kind of like Merlin or Gandolf.

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  2. Not good at weather predictions. I trust the NWS far less since 47 fired hundreds of staff.

    “Red” Garland’s version is bad news when played during American Public Media Marketplace.

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  3. 1. Not very.
    2. Not as much as I used to. I think it’s tougher for them to predict because our climate change is influencing daily/weekly weather patterns. But their predictions are still quite useful to warn us of severe weather.
    3. Not memorable enough to remember specifically. But plenty of times, like Renee’s example when the forecast was much ado about nothing. Either that or, “Wow! That storm seemed to come out of nowhere. How did the forecasters miss that?”

    Bottom line, I trust weather forecasts about as much as I trust the GPS navigation in my car: about 80-90% accurate.

    Chris in O-town

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  4. We had a similar prediction about a week ago, so we battened down the hatches for a 20-minute storm in the wee hours, which did blow stuff around a bit, but it was disappointing there wasn’t more rain. The weather reporting in general has amped up the drama in the last decade or so – lots more seems to be predicted as “severe”…
    Someone gets this weather, but it often veers north or south of us.

    Wrong? – moi??

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  5. Rise and Look at the Sky,Baboons,

    I don’t think the drama factor is due to the NWS, but rather is a reflection of the media stations who trade on entertainment and drama rather than actual news. This affects weather reporting as well as all news. Meanwhile, with the reckless cuts carried out by the current federal administration, I do not trust much that they do, with remaining staff stressed by increased work loads and fear of losing their jobs. The Extension Service, that venerable education arm of government is being cut back, as well. This will affect the Master Gardener program. (Namecalling occuring here as I type. *!@**1)

    My migraines often forecast an upcoming rainstorm. Years ago when I told a Dr. that I had tracked headaches and storms, the guy laughed. Then, guess what? Research showed there are migraines caused by weather changes. Grrr.

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  6. I am curious how many vulnerable people went to the college in the afternoon and actually stayed until the storm was over around midnight. People are allowed to bring their pets to the shelter, which is nice, I think.

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  13. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the weather report. The main thing I’ve discovered over the years — if I want it to rain really badly then it probably won’t. The forecast says it’s supposed to rain overnight here but again, since I want it to I don’t trust that it will so I was out in the backyard this afternoon, watering my bales and flower pots, holding myself up with my big Gandalf stick. Guinevere is afraid of the walking stick. Sigh.

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  16. weather is a thing in minnesota. it is a topic of discussion and a catagory on the news. other places have weather that does not stimulate conversation. san diego…london seatle pretty much the same every day. global warming will all be looked back upon and have people talk about the days when their were seasons

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