Making Predictions

I was happy to wake up on September 24 and find that the world hadn’t ended as David Meade, biblical numerologist, had predicted. I believe he recalculated after he found things were still the same on the 24th as they were on the 23rd, and predicted another date for our demise  on  October 15th.  The rogue planet Nibiru, violating all physics principles, is predicted to collide with earth and set in motion all sorts of rannygazoo.   We shall have to see what happens. I believe that is the date of  Blevin’s book club.  At least you will all be together.

It isn’t easy to make accurate predictions.  Our world is so random that people search for certainty and cling to the idea that we can make sense of the universe. Consider poor Harold Camping,  the evangelist and radio host who made multiple predictions of the Earth’s end in 2011,  and who finally admitted in 2012 that he was sinful for even trying to make such predictions, falling back on Matthew 24:36 “of that day and hour knoweth no man”.

I am often asked as part of my work to make predictions regarding human behavior.  Psychologists have a myriad of tests and ways of making such predictions, but it is never completely 100% accurate. I know that people who score certain ways on tests of cognition and memory probably have dementia.  I know that people who score in certain ways on tests of emotions and personality probably have certain  mental health diagnoses.  I feel pretty certain predicting that parents with drug and alcohol use disorders  who previously neglected and abused their children will probably do the same thing if they continue to abuse substances.   I can  predict, however, with almost 100%  certainty, that if people are allowed to purchase machine guns, those guns will fired off.  That is probably the easiest thing to predict, and you don’t need an advanced graduate degree to do so.

When have you been able to say “I told you so”?

22 thoughts on “Making Predictions”

  1. “I told you so” is so blatantly self-aggrandizing that I hope I never have said it. It is the kind of thing we expect our current president to say, which is another reason to find the phrase disgusting.

    I am not given to predicting things. I was raised with the humility typical of Midwesterners. The professional team I follow, the Minnesota Vikings, is the only team to have lost the Super Bowl four times. And if all that were not enough to keep me humble, I used to commute in a tiny car, cringing at the sight of massive trucks all around me.

    When circumstances compel me to predict human behavior, I expect people to do the same stuff in the future that they did in the past. I often regret that stance. Part of me wants to believe people can suddenly reform. It does happen, I guess. But the sad truth is that people usually do again what they have always done.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Far be it from me to dispute anyone about the NFL, but I think you will find the Buffalo Bills have also lost 4 Super Bowls.

      I only know this because I was living in Buffalo at the time of the 4th loss. It was not pretty.

      I would be remiss if I did not take this opportunity to also say,
      HOW ‘BOUT THOSE LYNX!!!!!!!! (I don’t actually follow them either, but Ihave a lot of very happy friends this morning 🙂 ).

      Liked by 1 person

    1. Yeah, I feel similarly. I had this sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that he was going to win the election – I was right. And he has more than fulfilled my expectations (which were Not Good). However, I sure don’t feel like gloating about it.

      Liked by 2 people

  2. I don’t usually gloat when I’m right, but I make sure the person involved is aware of my rightness. That said, I’m sure I have said to Husband something along the lines of “See????!” Most recently it was something about the physical therapy he is receiving for his torn Achilles tendon. But you know what, it’s only satisfying to come out right if that person is being belligerent about the whole thing. If they’re calm and accepting of your rightness, it’s like kicking a puppy to say “I told you so.”

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I try not to utter the phrase “I told you so”, but sometimes it just pops out in some circumstances when someone is being belligerent. It usually comes out more like “Aha! I knew I was right about that.” Sort of like Hannibal in the “A Team” saying “I love it when a plan comes together.”

    Yes, it’s self-congratulatory, but sometimes a shy person needs to say things to bolster themselves a little when so many others will gladly take credit and hog the limelight. Just sayin’ ….

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Having grown up in a household where the worst thing you could be was wrong, I don’t ever remember anyone actually admitting I was right.

    you knew someone knew they were wrong when they changed the subject. we see this right now nationally. Most people are hard pressed to explain why anyone should have a massive arsenal, but will pivot the discussion if you try to suggest something like that should be regulated.

    Took me years to learn to look someone in the eye and say, ooh, you’re right, I was wrong. Possibly the smartest parenting move I ever made. Makes for an all around happier life too.

    Liked by 5 people

  5. Being a mom of three gave me ample opportunities to say or think, “I told you so” but I usually didn’t say it out loud. Thankfully, my parenting wasn’t all that, but just as often, “I’m sorry, I was wrong (or I shouldn’t have said or done that).” I wish I could think of a specific example of an I Told You So moment (preferably funny) but I’m not coming up with anything.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. I am part of a large group of voters who will no doubt have the opportunity to say “I told you so” to a group of voters who were bamboozled. It’s just a matter of time.

    Liked by 4 people

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.