A GLOBAL MARKET

Today’s post comes from Ben.

April showers bring May flowers. Let’s hope so. How many times have the robins been snowed on now?

Maybe you’ve heard on the radio or TV how crop prices are up. I’ve talked about how all the input prices are up, and all of that means food prices at the grocery store may be going up.

There’s a lot involved in all this and I’m reducing it to a few sentences so, I may be making some sweeping generalizations here. The prices listed here, and the ones you generally hear on the news, are from CBOT – Chicago Board of Trade. Local prices will be less, as the local elevator gets their share. The difference is called the ‘basis’.

Yes, crop prices are up. Some of that has to do with the lack of imports from Ukraine and Russia, it has to do with stockpiles in the US, and it has to do with market predictions on how many acres are going to be planted this year.

Wheat prices had been running about $8/ bushel but jumped to over $12 in March and are now about $10.

Corn was $3 / bushel in August of 2020 and currently is almost $7.50.

Soybeans had been running about $10 / bushel and spiked over $16 in 2021, dropped at harvest to $12 and spiked again over $16 before dropping off a bit.

Why? It’s all supply and demand and the predictions and estimates of that.

India is the world’s second largest producer of wheat and they’re having a good year. And Kansas winter wheat predictions improved so supply may be higher.

Predictions show more soybeans than corn being planted in the US this year, which surprised the experts, but not really due to the extremely high fertilizer prices. (Corn takes more fertilizer than soybeans).

Brazil, which is a leading soybean producing country, may not be having the best crop this year. And as they guess what the weather might be in the US, that also influences pricing here.

It’s a little bit crazy and I don’t know how anybody should think they know what’s really going on. I guess if you’re lucky this week and your prediction is right, then you’re the ‘expert’.

I rotate crops annually; therefore in 2022 I will have more corn than soybeans, just because that’s how it worked out this year. Add in my shoulder issues and I’m planting less acres of oats this year, so I’ve got a few more acres of corn and soybeans both.

I saw a YouTube farmer talking about the high corn prices in 2012 so they built a huge shop. But by 2014 corn prices were down by 50%. And see, that’s always the problem; just because the price is good now doesn’t mean it will be good tomorrow, and I shouldn’t go nuts buying machinery and taking out loans. I bought Kelly a pearl necklace back in 2012; when the lady at the jewelry store asked what the occasion was, I told her corn was $5 / bushel. Bet she didn’t expect that answer.

I have 1000 bushels in storage at the local elevator. Local price there is $6.75. CBOT is $7.37. The basis is $0.62. The elevator charges $0.16 / bushel to store it for the first 3 months, then $0.04 / bushel after that.

Typically, prices are peaking about now so I’ll probably sell it shortly. There’s a tractor payment due in July that will take all of that and more. (But it’s the last payment! Yay!)

Duck count: Lost a black one and a cream colored. Still have two poufs, two cream, three black, and 17 mallards (that includes the Rouens that look like mallards except they’re fatter and they don’t fly). I did see a Rouen “hooking up” with a black one, so maybe they’re shacked up somewhere. But I kinda doubt it. The flamingos have returned, too.

I started keeping track of how many eggs I move out of the house. January was 20 dozen. February was only 10. March was 35 dozen! One day I collected 18 eggs. The previous day was 14.

No doubt you’ve heard of the avian flu going around again. I didn’t have any trouble with it last time. I’m hoping that holds true this time, too.

Working on my chick order for spring. Female chicks are somewhere between $4 and $5.30 each. The fancier, the more expensive. I’m looking at about $200 for 40 chicks. Availability varies, but I’ll shoot for mid-April. Weather should be warmer and stabilized some by then, right?

Predict Something. Remember Johnny Carson’s Carnac?

61 thoughts on “A GLOBAL MARKET”

  1. Rise and Shine Baboons,

    The plastic pink flamingo in the snow is a uniquely Minnesota picture!

    My friend, Dave, in High School loved the Johnny Carson Show. He was a trumpet player, and at that time Doc Severinson was featured nightly. Anything Doc played , Dave would then play. Ed McMahon was featured as announcer and side kick. His role was vital to the Carnac gig. Ed really was the perfect side kick to Johnny. Every morning in school Dave could be found repeating the joys of Johnny the night before. He tells me that he had this routine through his life until Johnny Carson retired. (Dave, a retired farmer, lives in Central MN now with his wife, Judy. He has had a tough year, having had a severe case of COVID that then kicked up his OCD and germ fears.)

    I predict that Ben will deliver chicken poo and straw bales on Saturday….. OK, I had inside information. I do anticipate the arrival of new baby chicks and the pictures. That has been such a pleasure to follow on your posts, Ben.

    Real predictions:
    1. #45 will continue to fade in influence and health, as will his ego ideal, Putin.
    2. I will have a hip replacement soon
    3. VS will retire and love it (and I will follow soon thereafter)
    4. My bulbs will peak up through the soil this week.

    Liked by 8 people

    1. PS, last night I watched the women’s final four games with admiration and envy. As girls’ athletic offerings, my high school had only girls’ golf 50 years ago, and look at what these young women do now. WOW. This winter when we attended our grandson’s wrestling meet (wrestled at #177and pinned his opponent) I found the girls’ wrestling team sitting in front of us. So many things now seem uncertain, headed in unwise directions, but girls’ having such opportunities is such a good thing.

      Liked by 7 people

    2. Jacque, I am delivering some
      Straw today! Just not to you yet.
      Doc Severinson, yeah, he was pretty fun. I watched some YouTube clips of Carnac and you’re right how good Ed was to that.

      Liked by 3 people

  2. My “trick knee” thinks it’s going to be hot and dry in the Upper Midwest again this year. Of course, I have no data to back that up, just a hunch. I thought it would be hot and dry last summer too. I think I got the dry right, but it wasn’t nearly as hot (extremes) as I expected, even though I believe we had several months that, on average, were near the hottest on record.

    I hope I’m wrong. No drought last night and early this morning. 🙂

    Chris in O-town

    Liked by 5 people

      1. I have a slightly messed up knee, Ben, but it can’t predict diddly squat. But I had to give some lame reason why I think we’ll have a drought this year other than “Because I said so!” Hmm, might as well have used that reason in the first place. 😉

        Chris in O-town

        Liked by 4 people

    1. Hey Chris! I just opened Scene Magazine and there you are on pages 4-5! Great interview and full color photos of you and your books! Looks great!

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Thanks, Krista. Yeah, I was impressed with the layout. I thought the writer, Molly Penny, would edit down my responses into a short little one page article. She’s turning out to be a big fan too. I’ve been on her KOWZ morning radio show to promote each of my books and she’s always seemed quite interested in my story and my books.

        C

        Liked by 1 person

    1. Pork roast braised in milk, pastitsio, and lasagna (the lasagna is going to Minnesota with me on Moday for my friend’s in Howard Lake.)

      Liked by 3 people

        1. I don’t know about that. I still rely on my gut as a prognosticator. I almost wrote procrastinator, which would have been accurate as well.

          Liked by 5 people

  3. Plans have changed. Husband is firing up the smoker and we are having baby back ribs and Hungarian sausage instead of the pork roast. It is sunny, not too windy, and it will be warm enough.

    Liked by 6 people

  4. The prices on used machinery have also skyrocketed. There’s a well known guy called ‘Machinery Pete’, (who is from Rochester and is a pretty good golfer too) that has kept track of farm auctions for years. It was sort of a niche-market. But the last few years, and thanks to social media, his profile has really taken off.
    Again, covid, and supply chain issues have really driven the used market up. Every day he’s got a post about “new record prices” on some piece of machinery. It’s crazy.
    At the end of 2021 I ordered a new rear blade for grading the road and moving snow. It finally showed up at the dealer last week; I haven’t gotten it yet.

    Liked by 5 people

        1. There’s an old movie called ‘The Night they Raided Minsky’s’ which has a scene about fingers:

          Jacob: “…I shall raise the finger of righteousness [raises index finger] to call down the wrath of heaven.”
          Vance: “My father, an Episcopal vestryman, used this [raises pinkie finger] as the finger of Righteousness”.
          J: “Bah! And again Bah! There is no finger of righteousness. This [ raises pinkie and turns it in his ear] is the finger of cleanliness. This [raises ring finger] is the finger of marital bliss, [pints to wedding band] This [ raises index finger] is the finger of vengeance. This [levels middle finger toward Vance, palm downward] is the finger of meddling in other peoples lives [poking vance in chest with it] and this [sticks out thumb] is the finger of transportation. It will get us a taxi to the theater. You speak with the fist of authority, gentlemen, but you do not know your fingers.”

          I always enjoy that scene.

          Liked by 3 people

        1. Farfar, farmor, = grandparents on the father’s side. Morfar, mormor = the grandparent’s on the mother’s side.

          Liked by 3 people

  5. Sorry, I didn’t see the header photo right away.

    *I hope I’m wrong about predicting a hot, humid summer.
    *It will warm up by May but before that happens there will be more snow.
    *I will work my last summer.
    *Covid will make a comeback, then drop and flatten out again.

    I really hope the world turns to sanity and peace.

    Liked by 6 people

  6. I’m usually not very good at the Octordle, but today, baboons, was an exception. My score was 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. I didn’t see that coming. Can you believe it? My first guess was the correct word in puzzle #6! WOOT! (Whatever that means?)

    Liked by 2 people

  7. I predict that by tomorrow morning I will be much more present and relaxed. Tomorrow morning is our annual UU “business” meeting, and I’ll be running it because I’m the Board Chairperson. Several key people are out of town or have tested positive (no symptoms) for Covid. No idea if enough people will show up to have a quorum for voting… Que sera, sera.

    It will be lovely to be on the other side of it.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. So, BiR, did your prediction come through? Are you feeling more present and relaxed, and did you have a quorum? My gut tells me, all of your fussing was for naught.

      Like

    1. Yesterdays signing at Once Upon a Crime was fun. While I was there Chris and I were able to meet jennywren who stopped in as well. That was a lot of fun to meet another baboon from the trail. And I found a fun Sherlock Holmes book I hadn’t read before.

      Liked by 3 people

  8. I’m not very good at predictions. Dr. Osterholm is fond of saying . “Every morning I wake up, I try to scrape the five inches of mud off my crystal ball and take a look….” It’s become a sort of a dad joke on his podcast. The world I’m looking at today is so far afield from what I would have expected if you had asked me eight or ten years ago, I just don’t trust my own expectations anymore.

    Liked by 3 people

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